Thursday, September 27, 2012

Crystal Ball: NM Senate Seat Now Likely Heinrich

According to the Crystal Ball, New Mexico's U.S. Senate race is no longer "leaning" to Democrat Martin Heinrich ... it's likely to be won by Heinrich.

No, I haven't turned to the occult to make political predictions. I'm talking about Sabato's Crystal Ball , the website of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics honcho Larry Sabato. Yesterday, Sabato's site changed its rating for the New Mexico race and several others.

After mentioning improved outlooks for Democratic Senate candidates in Florida and Ohio, Sabato and his co-authors wrote:

The same thing goes for New Mexico, where Republicans have apparently already abandoned their candidate, ex-Rep. Heather Wilson. We’re upgrading Rep. Martin Heinrich’s (D) chances to likely Democratic, which matches our rating of the state in the presidential race.

The reference to the national Republicans "abandoning" Wilson is a reference to the fact the the National Republican Senatorial Committee pulled a planned $3 million ad buy for Wilson, who has consistently trailed Heinrich in polls. Wilson insists that her own polls show she has begun a comeback. We'll know for sure in about 40 days.

The Washington Post's political blog The Fix still shows New Mexico "leaning" toward Heinrich, as does Real Clear Politics.