Monday, March 24, 2014

Rael Poll Shows King Losing Steam and Rael Gaining

I'm about to write about results of a candidate-commissioned poll just announced during a telconference. And I have not yet seen the actual poll, just a polling memo. So take this with the usual grains of salt.

But a poll by the Bruce Donisthorpe organization for the gubernatorial campaign of Democrat Lawrence Rael had the following results.

Gary King 26 percent
Lawrence Rael 21 percent
Howie Morales 12 percent
Linda Lopez 10 percent
Alan Webber 10 percent
Undecided 20 percent.

There were 888 likely Democrats (those who voted in the 2010 and 2012 primaries) surveyed, which gives the poll a 3.2 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted in mid March.

Rael's campaign also released the numbers from a previous poll in November. That poll showed:

King 31 percent
Rael 12 percent
Lopez 9 percent
Morales 7 percent
Webber 7 percent.
Undecided 32 percent.

So if these numbers are correct, King has lost five percent, while Rael has gained nine percent. Morales has gained five percent, Webber 3 percent and Lopez one percent.

The number of undecideds has fallen by 13 percent.

A campaign spokeswoman said the poll didn't include any match-ups with the Democratic candidates against incumbent Susana Martinez. 

I requested to see the cross-tabs, but spokeswoman Yasmine Armstrong said the campaign isn't releasing it.