Thursday, June 20, 2013

Sabato's Crystal Ball Says Susana Re-Elect Likely

Political scientist Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, just release his ratings for all of the 2014 governor races.

Below is his take on New Mexico. (I left in the links from his site.)

New Mexico: Gov. Susana Martinez (R) recently told National Journal that she has no interest in running for president. However, it’s possible that the lady doth protest too much. Martinez is viewed by many in the GOP hierarchy as a rising star. And why wouldn’t they? She is a Hispanic governor of a state that President Obama won twice by large margins, the kind of profile that many Republicans think is key to expanding the party’s membership and giving it a shot of winning in 2016. But before Martinez can determine her interest in the next presidential cycle, she will need to win reelection first. However, if her 66% approval rating is any sign of things to come, defeating her will be tough sledding for Democrats in 2014. So far, the top challenger is Attorney General Gary King (D), son of a former governor. But it’s possible that King could be vulnerable on his left flank, having recently announced that he would not offer an opinion on whether New Mexico law permits gay marriage, a decision Martinez agreed with. State Sen. Linda Lopez (D) is the only other declared candidate in the race, though several other state legislators are also considering the contest. No matter who winds up being the Democratic nominee, right now it looks like it will be an uphill battle to defeat Martinez.