Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Another Day, Another Poll

An internal poll from the Diane Denish campaign by the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner firm shows Denish only three points behind Republican Susana Martinez. The poll results were released first in Politico's Morning Score today.

This is better for Democrat Denish than last week's Albuquerque Journal poll by Brian Sanderoff's company. But it's not as good as another poll by another company released by Denish recently that showed her only one point down.

The poll intereviewed 602 likely voters between September 30 and October 4. The margin of error is 4 percent.

According to this poll, Martinez's disapproval level is on the rise. "The percentage of voters viewing Martinez unfavorably has increased 6 points since mid-September and 11 points since mid-August ... while Denish’s standing is static, Martinez’ negatives are on the rise." Thirty nine percent of those poll view Martinez favorable while 42 percent are unfavorable. Denish's numbers are nearly identical, 39 percent favorable -43 percent unfavorable.

According to the poll memo:

In a normal year in New Mexico where two candidates have the same standing, the Democrat wins. In this political environment where the normal Democratic advantage is muted, we will need extra firepower in paid communications and turnout to push ourselves over the top.

One weird thing about the poll memo is that it's dated Oct. 25, 2010. I hope time travel isn't involved. Denish Poll Oct. 4