Invisible Candidate Johnson Now Leading Some "Serious" Candidates

The bad news for Gary Johnson is that, according to the latest national poll of Republicans, he's only pulling two percent.

However, according to the new CNN/ORC poll, Johnson is beating both ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and former Sen. Rick Santorum. And he's tied with pizza magnate Herman Cain. In a race in which Sarah Palin and Rudy Giulian are excluded, Johnson remains at 2 percent -- still beating Huntsman and Santorum, but falling one point behind Cain.

However, both Huntsman and Santorum are invited to next week's debate in California, sponsored by NBC and Politico. Johnson is not.

"This poll, conducted by credible organizations and more current than those used by NBC and Politico to choose who will be allowed on the stage in California next week, shows that it is ludicrous to exclude Gary Johnson, while inviting other candidates whose support appears to be no greater than his," said Johnson campaign campaign manager Ron Nielson in a news release. "Drawing arbitrary lines between polling results, when all of those results are within margins of error, and using those lines to determine who gets to take his or her message to the voters on a national stage if fundamentally wrong at this stage of the process."

The poll is based on interviews with 467 Republicans on Aug. 24-25. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

Johnson Touts New McClatchy-Marist Poll

Gary Johnson just tweeted about some new poll results.

The good news for Gary: He's tied with Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty, and he's got TWICE the support of Jon Huntsman among Republican voters.

The bad news: Johnson, Newt and T-Paw, as well as former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer are all at 2 percent. Huntsman has 1 percent.

Scroll way down to the bottom of the document below to see those results.

One screwy thing I noticed about some other numbers in the poll: 18 percent of those who say they are "Tea Party Supporters" say they will "definitely vote for President Obama" in 2012.

The Obama wing of the Tea Party. There's a feature story waiting to happen!

MARISTPOLL8-11

Susana Poll Numbers Looking Good

In the most recent numbers released by PPP, Gov. Susana Martinez is enjoying a 52 percent approval rate, with 37 percent of those polled disapproving.

In the PPP blog, poll honcho Tom Jensen says, "Most of the Republicans elected Governor in Obama states last November have quickly become very unpopular. Not so in the case of New Mexico's Susana Martinez ... A female Hispanic Governor who's maintaining her popularity as she governs a blue state? Martinez would be at the top of my VP list for next year if I was a Republican strategist."

Of course, Jensen is not a GOP strategist. PPP is a Democratic polling firm.

The latest poll finds that Martinez would beat Democrat Diane Denish in a rematch 53 percent to 44 percent. About a third of the Democrats polled approved of Martinez's first six months as governor as did a plurality of Hispanics.

The poll also asked about same-sex marriage.

When asked whether same-sex marriage should be legal 42 percent said yes and 48 percent said no. "Respondents under 65 narrowly support it but are outweighed by 58/30 opposition among senior citizens," Jensen said.

However, when respondents are given the option of "civil unions" the numbers get interesting. 37 percent chose same-sex marriage as the best option, 31 percent chose "civil unions" while only 30 percent agreed that "there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship."

Other poll findings:

* Outgoing Sen. Jeff Bingaman's approval rating is 59 percent (29 percent disapprove) while Sen. Tom Udall has a 48 percent approval (31 percent disapprove). U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan's figures are 30 percent approval, 34 percent approval, but those numbers are statewide, not just CD3, which Lujan represents.

* Former Gov. Bill Richardson's still are low -- 27 percent favorable, 63 percent unfavorable.

PPP surveyed 732 New Mexico voters from June 23 to 26. The margin of error is 3.6 percent.

PPP Release NM 705

Wilson, Heinrich Leading in PPP Senate Poll

If the New Mexico primary was held this week, Republican Heather Wilson would beat Lt. Gov. John Sanchez by better than a 2 to 1 margin. And Democrat Martin Heinrich would beat state Auditor Hector Balderas by nearly 2-to-1.

This is according to a statewide survey conducted this week by a national polling company, PPP. It's the first public poll done on the Senate race since U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman announced he's not seeking re-election.

According to PPP's poll memo, Heinrich, a second-term ccngressman from Albuquerque, is helped by greater name recognition. He leads Balderas in the Democratic Primary, 47 percent to 24 percent.

The poll found 73 percent recognized Heinrich's name enough to have an opinion of him. Fifty three percent had a positive opinion while 20 percent had a negative opinion. More than half the Democratic respondents had no opinion of Balderas.

"Although Heinrich is weaker among Hispanics, who make up 46 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, he still leads Balderas 39 percent to 36 percent among Hispanics," the poll memo says. "However, since a majority of Democratic voters are still unwilling to give an opinion of Balderas, Balderas has more room to grow."

On the  GOP side, Wilson was supported by 52 percent of Republicans polled compared with 24 percent for Sanchez. Las Cruces businessman Greg) Sowards came in a distant third with eight percent, while Bill English of Alamogordo got 4 percent .

"Wilson leads by strong margins across the Republican ideological spectrum," the poll memo said. "She leads Sanchez 48-19 among moderates and 48-31 among very conservatives."

Even though many identify Wilson as a "moderate" Republican, since her defeat to Steve Pearce in the 2008 GOP senate primary -- in which Pearce and his supporters called her a "liberal" -- Wilson has been stressing her conservative credentials.

PPP's blog says, "There's been a lot of talk about whether Wilson is weak with the far right and she is weaker with that segment of the party. ... Maybe she'll have trouble with the Tea Party crowd later in the game but she doesn't start off showing any signs of weakness with them."

PPP is a company owned by Democrats and specializes in polling for Democrats and liberal organizations. However, according to experts, the North Carolina-based company's numbers normally are in line with other national polling firms.

Wilson's campaign didn't seem to mind that PPP is a Democratic company. She posted the poll results on her Facebook and Twitter accounts.

PPP poll results released earlier this week show Heinrich and Balderas with modest leads in match-ups against Wilson and Sanchez.

Heinrich led Wilson 47 percent to 42 percent and Sanchez by 45 percent to 39 percent. Balderas led Wilson 45 percent to 39 percent and Sanchez 39 percent to 35 percent.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee on Tuesday responded those numbers Tuesday in an email saying, "If this is what a Democrat polling firm’s numbers show, than it’s clear that the New Mexico Senate race will be among the most competitive in the country next year."

PPP also polled New Mexico Republican voters on the GOP presidential candidates.

Those results found Minnesota Congresswoman and Tea Party favorite Michele Bachmann with a plurality of 21 percent with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney close behind with 18 percent. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson came in third with 13 percent.

"Johnson has the weakest favorability numbers with his home state Republican primary voters at 47 (percent favorable)/40 (percent unfavorable.)" the PPP blog said. "Some of his unorthodox positions aren't playing well with the base, even if they do give him an unusual level of popularity across party lines with Democrats and independents."

The "unorthodox positions" referred to undoubtedly were Johnson's outspoken support for marijuana legalization, and possibly to the fact he supports abortions rights and civil-union rights for same-sex couples.

PPP surveyed 400 usual New Mexico Republican primary voters and 400 usual Democratic primary voters, with a 4.9 percent margin of error, between June 23 and 26. The poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.

UPDATE 9:05 pm : Some gibberish in the lead paragraph in the original version has been cleaned up.

PPP Release NM 630930

Roundhouse Roundup: Tiresome Champions

A version of this was published in The Santa Fe New Mexican
June 30, 2011

Last week in this column, I boldly took a bold stance against politicians overusing the word bold. This week, if I may be so bold, I'd like to talk about another word that politicians love to use but has become tiresome:

"Tireless."

At least he'll never claim to be "tireless."

It seems that everyone running for political office these days seems to think that he or she has to convince voters that they are tireless advocates, tireless champions, tireless workers, tireless fighters.

It's enough to make me bleary-eyed.

Former Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez is the latest major New Mexico politician to declare his tirelessness. In his 4 1/2-minute video announcing his candidacy for the 1st Congressional District seat, Chavez says if he's elected, he'll be a "tireless advocate of investments in education."

A quick Google Desktop search of my email shows that U.S. Senate candidate Heather Wilson, according to an endorser, is "a tireless worker, and she knows how to get things done"; former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is "a tireless fighter for New Mexico families" who has "fought tirelessly for the children of New Mexico"; former Gov. Toney Anaya was "a tireless advocate for everyday New Mexicans" (that's from Judge Linda Vanzi in accepting Anaya's election endorsement last year). GOP gubernatorial contender Janice Arnold-Jones last year traveled the state "in a seemingly tireless effort to introduce herself to voters." Last year's Republican attorney general candidate Matt Chandler displays "tireless service on behalf of (crime) victims."

The list goes on.

Don't these people ever sleep? Do they ever blink or yawn? It's almost as if they want us to believe they are superhuman, that they don't need to slow down like lesser mortals.

Maybe someone should tell these folks to give it a rest. Until then, "tireless" politicians will continue to be a tired political cliché.

Poll talk: In the battle for New Mexico's five electoral votes next year, there's good news and bad news for President Barack Obama in a Public Policy Polling survey released Wednesday.

In the poll, Obama leads most potential Republican candidates by 15 percentage points or more. There are two exceptions. The president is ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by only seven percentage points. And, according to the poll, long-shot GOP contender and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson would lose to Obama by a mere three percentage points — which is within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Johnson actually leads Obama among independent voters and those in the 37-to-46 age group.

The bad news for Obama is that while he wins every matchup in this poll, his margins have dropped significantly from the last time PPP polled here — just four months ago. His margin over Romney, for instance, dropped by nine percentage points since February.

The poll found 50 percent of New Mexico voters approve Obama's job performance, while 44 percent disapprove. That's down from a 55-40 percent approval rating in February.

The company, which uses automated "robo" calls, surveyed 732 New Mexico voters between June 23 and Sunday.

PPP is a Democrat polling company, but no candidate or political organization paid for the New Mexico poll.

Despite its Democratic ownership, New York Times polling expert Nate Silver has found that, on average, PPP's 2010 surveys slightly favored Republican candidates. Molly Ball in Politico observed earlier this year, "Plenty of conservatives deride PPP as a liberal shop when they don't like its numbers, only to turn around and cite the firm when the results are more to their liking."

PPP Poll Says Dems Have a Slight Edge in Senate Race

If the 2012 U.S. Senate election was today either Martin Heinrich or Hector Balderas would defeat Heather Wilson, John Sanchez or Greg Sowards.

That's according to the latest PPP survey, which was released today.

Congressman Martin Heinrich leads former Congresswoman Heather Wilson 47-42 and Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez 45-39. State Auditor Hector Balderas leads Wilson 45-39 and Sanchez 39-35. Either of the Democrats would have a much wider lead over dark horse Republican candidate Greg Sowards: it's a 42-28 advantage for Balderas and a 46-34 one for Heinrich.

Wilson is the best known candidate with 83 percent recognition. On the Democratic side, Heinrich, at 68 percent recognition is better known than Balderas, who is known only by 39 percent.

While the poll shows Wilson and Sanchez getting some crossover support from conservative Democrats, "they're not where they need to be with independents." Among the indies, Wilson is behind Heinrich by 12 points and Balderas by 9 with them. Sanchez has a 2 point edge over Balderas with the independents, but trails Heinrich by 13. "The Republicans will have to step up their performance with independents to have a chance at picking up the seat," PPP says.

A news release from PPP says, "Despite her negative favorability numbers and deficit to Heinrich in this poll there is some good news for Wilson. When we looked at New Mexico in February she trailed Heinrich 50-39 in a hypothetical contest. So she has gained some ground over the last few months."

Also from the news release:

PPP surveyed 732 New Mexico voters from June 23th to 26th. The margin of error for thesurvey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Below is the poll with crosstabs, etc.
Ppp Nm Senate Poll 6-27-11

Wilson Leading Big in Poll of NM GOP

Thirteen months before the U.S. Senate primary, former Congresswoman Heather Wilson has a huge lead in a survey conducted of 801 like Republican voters.

Wilson at a Tea Party rally last year

According to the "robo" poll by Magellan Strategies, Wilson leads expected candidate Lt. Gov. John Sanchez 59 percent to 17 percent. Las Cruces businessman Greg Sowards got two percent of the vote, while another 11 percent said they would prefer a candidate other than Wilson, Sanchez or Sowards.

Neither U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce or longshot contender Bill English were included in the poll. In another section of the poll Pearce had a favorable rating by Republicans of 77 percent.

The poll shows that Wilson has an 84 percent favorable rating (55 percent of those polled said "very favorable.") Only 12 percent had unfavorable opinions of Wilson. And two percent said they'd never heard of her! Nice to see that cavemen were included in this sample.

Sanchez showed a 58 percent favorable rating among the Republican respondents and a 13 percent unfavorable rating. Seventeen percent had no opinion of him and 12 percent hadn't heard of him.

Sowards, unsurprisingly, had the highest "huh?" rating. Forty one percent had never heard of him while another 23 percent had no opinion.

Sowards was the first, and so far only, candidate to respond. He put an optimistic spin on it, saying, “This survey is pretty good news to us. The robo-poll shows that a significant majority of primary voters (63%) have yet to definitely commit to former Congresswomen Wilson, while only 9% are ready to commit to Lt. Governor Sanchez who just recently got elected.”

Gov. Susana Martinez enjoys a high approval rating from her party in the survey. Ninety three percent of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of her. (75 percent of Republicans said "very favorable.")

Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry scored somewhat lower (59 percent favorable) but I suspect that's because he's less known outside of his city. Sixteen percent hadn't heard of him, while 17 percent said they had no opinion. Only eight percent had an unfavorable opinion.

According to the poll memo, "Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies fielded this survey with their own resources. Magellan does not have a business relationship with any candidate or group interested in the 2012 New Mexico US Senate Republican primary."

The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday and has a margin of error of 3.4 percent.

Here's the poll memo

Magellan New Mexico 2012 US Senate GOP Primary Survey Release 042811

Javier's Campaign Says He's Doing Fine in Poll

When I asked Sam Bregman yesterday about Sen. Jeff Bingaman's endorsement of Javier Gonzales in the state chairman's race, Bregman said Gonzales was publicizing the endorsement to counteract a recent poll Gonzales commissioned of state Democratic Central Committee members showing Bregman winning the contest.

"They're losing," Bregman said. "The train has left the station."

But today, Gonzales' spokesman shot me an e-mail saying that there indeed was a poll, but it showed Gonzales doing better than 54 percent. Bregman was pulling just over 37 percent, while Letitia Montoya had about 8.5 percent.

According to spokesman Matt Ross the call, which went out to all 400-plus Central Committee members, went as follows:

"Hello, tonight we are conducting a short survey on the upcoming State Democratic Party Chair's race. If the election were held today, who would you vote for:
Press 1 for Javier Gonzales
Press 2 for Sam Bregman
Press 3 for Letitia Montoya
Thank you for your time this evening."

But before Gonzales supporters start popping the champagne corks, a look at the poll shows that only 101 people responded. That's just under a fourth of the number of total members. So nobody really knows yet how the other 75 percent are going to vote.

The actual voting will take place on April 30.

New Poll in Dem Senate Race

Congressman Martin Heinrich is the leader for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate  in a new poll conducted by a San Francisco company.

The poll of Democratic likely voters, conducted March 8-10 by Tulchin Research for the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund, showed:

Martin Heinrich 32%
Diane Denish 25%
Ben Ray Lujan 15%
Hector Balderas 5%
Undecided 24%

One thing that caught my eye is that the sample size  --213 likely 2012 Dem voters -- seems a lot lower than the numbers I usually see. And the margin of error is higher -- 6.71 percent.

But what's interesting is how I learned about the poll. Heinrich didn't send it out, the National Republican Congressional Committee did. And a spokesman for that organization, Tyler Q. Houlton, implied in a statement that Heinrich is considering the race because he's chicken!

“Martin Heinrich barely won his competitive congressional seat last year due to his support of the $800 billion failed stimulus and the trillion dollar government takeover of healthcare. Instead of risking a loss in 2012, will Heinrich decide to run for U.S. Senate?”

Poll Says Johnson Would Have a Hard Time in NM GOP Primaries

Gary Johnson, a political unknown when he announced he was running for governor in 1994, surprised many when he won the Republican primary for governor that year.
a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/robotclaw/3446290579/" title="Former Gov. Gary Johnson by Robotclaw666, on Flickr">
But now a new poll shows a Johnson victory in a GOP primary next year also would be surprising.

PPP, a North Carolina Democrat-affiliated company which polled New Mexicans earlier this month, showed the former governor would have a hard time in both the presidential primary or the U.S. Senate primary.

Johnson -- who has shown no interest in a Senate race -- would lose to former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson in a Senate primary.

In a New Mexico presidential primary, Johnson would finish behind Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, tying with Newt Gingrich for fourth place.

PPP surveyed 357 usual New Mexico Republican primary voters from February 4-6. The survey’s margin of error 5.2 percent.

Ppp Gop Primary 2-14-11

PPP pollster says Richardson's Career in Elected Politics Probably Over

According to a PPP poll conducted last weak, Bill Richardson left office as the third most unpopular governor in the nation. The only ones less popular are Arnold Schwarzenegger of California and Nevada’s scandal-plagued Jim Gibbons.

In PPP’s latest poll of the state, 34% now rate his eight years in the governor’s mansion positively, while 55% disapprove. Republicans unsurprisingly line up almost
unanimously against his tenure, and independents split, 30-50, in disapproval. He suffers most, though, because his fellow Democrats, who make up over half the electorate, are only barely, at 48-38, in his corner.


Now half of New Mexicans say they would definitely not vote for Richardson if he ran
for office again, while only 13% would be solidly in his corner, and 35% would give it
some thought. More Democrats (31%) have closed the door on him than the 19% who
still support him. 55% of independents are against another Richardson bid.

A couple of things to remember here: PPP is a Democratic pollster. Also, as a reader pointed out to me a couple of days ago, the sample for this poll is 55% Democrats and 29% Republican. According to the Secretary of State's website. voter registration in New Mexico is 49% Democrat and 32% Republican. So in this case, the real numbers might be even worse for the former governor.

Current Gov. Susana Martinez is faring much better than Richardson, according to the poll. her approval rating is 53 percent, with 29 percent disapproving. Sens. Tom Udall and Jeff Bingaman are doing well also. (Bingaman's numbers can be found HERE.)

Read all about it below. (As always, you'll be happier if you press the "Fullscreen" option.)

PPP Richardson Poll 2-11-11

Another PPP Poll ... But Wait ...

There's another PPP (Public Policy Polling) survey for New Mexico released today. This one shows President Obama way out in front of various Republican contenders.

Once again, PPP shows former Gov. Gary Johnson as the most possible Republican in the batch. Yesterday's poll showed Johnson as doing better than other Republicans against Sen. Jeff Bingaman.

But before we go one, one reader pointed something out to me.

"Their sample is way off," my source said. "55% Democrats and 29% Republican. A 26% gap" According to the Secretary of State's website. voter registration in NM is 49% Democrat and 32% Republican. A 17% gap."

Indeed that's a pretty big grain of salt to take the poll with. Also, remember, those surveyed are registered voters, not necessarily likely voters.

PPP is a Democratic polling firm. In fairness, they don't always bring happy news for Democrats. Last year Nate Silver rated the company the 13th most accurate in the country. (This was done before the general election. Not sure how they ranked after that.)

So do consider the sample here. And remember, like I said yesterday, this is way too earlier for anyone but the most shameless political junkies to give a hoot about. (Remember that great contest between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani?)

According to the PPP news release:

New Mexico was one of Barack Obama's most surprising states in 2008- not that he won it, but that he won it by such a wide 15 point margin after George W. Bush had taken it in 2004. Obama remains popular in the state and if he had to stand for reelection today he'd take it by a similar amount to his previous victory.


Obama's approval rating with New Mexicans is 55% with 40% of voters disapproving of him. Most noteworthy are his very strong numbers with independents, 60% of whom are happy with the job he's doing to 32% who dissent.

According to the poll Obama would beat Johnson -- who is considered a longshot for the nomination -  51-36. Mitt Romney would lose 53-37. The other match-ups: Mike Huckabee would lose 55-36; 21, Newt Gingrich would get 35 percent to Obama's 56 and Sarah Palin would receive 33 percent of the vote compared with the president's 62 percent.


PPP Release NM Obama 0209513

Bingaman Looks Safe, Early Poll Says

Even though much can change between now and November, 2012 and early polls basically are meaningless, (two years ago, Diane Denish looked unbeatable), I know political junkies, myself included, love looking at this stuff.

To nobody's surprise, according to this PPP poll, U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman looks safe. What does surprise me is that his toughest competitor, according to this survey, is former Gov. Gary Johnson. Johnson. Johnson has been traveling the country in what many assume is in preparation for a presidential bid. Would he even want to be a senator? He's never expressed any interest, at least in public for running for Congress. Senators can't veto anything.

Correct me if I'm wrong (as if you wouldn't), but I think the only declared Bingaman challenger is Republican Greg Sowards. Sowards wasn't listed in any match-ups in this survey.

(UPDATE: I stand corrected. One fellow blogger pointed out that an Alamogordo Republican named Bill English announced last year that he's running.)

Bingaman should like this little factoid from PPP: "With a 56-27 approval-disapproval margin, Bingaman is more popular at home than all but four of the 77 colleagues which PPP has measured in the last year or so

PPP surveyed 545 New Mexico voters from February 4-6. The survey’s margin of error is 4.2 percent.

Take a look at it below:
PPP Release NM 0208

Rasmussen Has Martinez by 10

The Rasmussen Reports has a new poll of New Mexico showing Republican Susana Martinez winning support of 52 percent of participants and Democrat Diane Denish at 42 percent.

The organization interviewed 750 likely voters on Sunday. The margin of error is 4 percent.

The poll is in line with other recent independent polls. For what it's worth Rasmussen is moving the race from "Leans Republican" to "Solid Republican."

The exact phrasing of the question asked was:

If the 2010 Election for Governor of New Mexico were held today would you vote for Republican Susana Martinez or Democrat Diane Denish? (Please note that we split the survey to rotate the order of the candidate names, so while half will hear the Republican candidate first, the other half hears the Democrat mentioned first.)

The poll has a sliver of good news for one Democrat. Gov. Bill Richardson has a 39 percent approval rating according to the new numbers.

Not great, especially for someone who won re-election with nearly 70 percent of the vote four years ago. But other recent polls have shown the governor's approval numbers in the low 30s or high 20s.

Another Internal Poll

Just a few minutes after I blogged about the latest Diane Denish poll, which showed Denish only one point behind Republican Susana Martinez, the Martinez camp sent me their own latest poll which shows their candidate leading the Democrat by 8 points.

Public Opinion Strategies, a GOP firm, spoke to 800 likely voters on October 20-21 & 23-24, 2010, including 100 cell phone interviews. The margin of error is 3.48 percent.

This is closer to the Real Clear Politics average of 9 points I mentioned in my previous post. Oct 20-21 Martinez Poll

Internal Polling

It's been rumored for awhile that polls by both Secretary of State candidates are showing Republican Dianna Duran leading Democrat Mary Herrera. I just got evidence of such a poll. It's a couple of weeks old, but it claims a 12 point lead for Duran.

According to the poll, Duran had 46 percent to Herrera's 34 percent. That leaves 20 percent undecided (which might look high, but this is a down-ballot race that's seen only minimal television advertising by either candidate.)

The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a GOP firm. They interviewed 800 likely voters on October 14 & 17-18, 2010 including 100 cell phone interviews on October 16th. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. Duran Poll Oct 14 Meanwhile, the Diane Denish gubernatorial campaign also released an internal poll today. This one shows Denish, the Democrat in the race, just one point behind Republican Susana Martinez.

It has to be noted that the only recent polls showing a close race have all come from the Denish camp. Real Clear Politics  shows a 9-point average Martinez lead, though the latest poll listed there was done on Oct. 14.

Denish's poll was conducted October 20 – 24 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Democratic firm. They talked to 603 likely voters. Margin of error is 4 percent.

Oct 25 Denish Poll

Hours of Entertainment

Tired of the incessant back and forth between Diane Denish and Susana Martinez? Or do you want more? You want to see these two pound the spit out of each other?

Then try NM Knockout a fun little game from a web site called NMPolitics.org. This won't replace Pacman in the pantheon of video-game time-wasters, but it's more fun than reading their press releases.

Speaking of punches, Martinez landed another one via the latest  Rasmussen poll. This one shows her 9 points ahead with 52 percent of the vote.

Another Day, Another Poll

An internal poll from the Diane Denish campaign by the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner firm shows Denish only three points behind Republican Susana Martinez. The poll results were released first in Politico's Morning Score today.

This is better for Democrat Denish than last week's Albuquerque Journal poll by Brian Sanderoff's company. But it's not as good as another poll by another company released by Denish recently that showed her only one point down.

The poll intereviewed 602 likely voters between September 30 and October 4. The margin of error is 4 percent.

According to this poll, Martinez's disapproval level is on the rise. "The percentage of voters viewing Martinez unfavorably has increased 6 points since mid-September and 11 points since mid-August ... while Denish’s standing is static, Martinez’ negatives are on the rise." Thirty nine percent of those poll view Martinez favorable while 42 percent are unfavorable. Denish's numbers are nearly identical, 39 percent favorable -43 percent unfavorable.

According to the poll memo:

In a normal year in New Mexico where two candidates have the same standing, the Democrat wins. In this political environment where the normal Democratic advantage is muted, we will need extra firepower in paid communications and turnout to push ourselves over the top.

One weird thing about the poll memo is that it's dated Oct. 25, 2010. I hope time travel isn't involved. Denish Poll Oct. 4

Another Good Poll For Susana

This one from Rasmussen Reports, which shows Martinez beating Diane Denish 51 percent to 41 percent.

This number includes "leaners" -- people leaning toward one candidate or another. Without these, the number is 50 percent for Martinez, 40 percent for Denish.

Rasmussen interviewed 750 likely voters in New Mexico on Wednesday. The margin of sampling error is4 percentage points.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters in the state share a favorable opinion of Martinez. Thirty-eight percent (38%) view the Republican unfavorably. This includes 35% with a Very Favorable opinion and 25% with a Very Unfavorable one. For Denish, favorables total 48% and Unfavorables 49%. These numbers include 21% Very Favorable and 27% Very Unfavorable.  

The numbers are close the recent Daily Kos/PPP poll,  which showed Martinez with 50 percent to Denish's 42 pecent.

Gov. Bill Richardson fared a little better in this poll than he did in the PPP survey. But it's still bad for the once popular governor. Rasmussen found  34 percent approved of Richardson's performance while 64 percent disapproved. PPP showed a 28 percent approval rating -- but still a 64 percent disapproval.

Roundhouse Roundup: The Heaviness of Being Lite Guv

A version of this was published in The Santa Fe New Mexican 
September 30, 2010

 Perhaps the major challenge that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Diane Denish has faced this year is trying to convince everyone that she is truly independent from the man with whom she ran in the past two elections — Gov. Bill Richardson.

The lieutenant governor and her supporters have pointed to instances in which she clashed with the governor. She has insisted that she’s outside of Richardson’s social circle.

But will that be enough to offset the associations between the two Democrats and the repeated allusions to the Richardson/Denish administration by Republican candidate Susana Martinez and her supporters? A man who eight years ago was in a position similar to Denish’s doesn’t think so.

Walter Bradley served eight years, beginning in 1995, as lieutenant governor under Republican Gov. Gary Johnson. Bradley ran for governor himself in 2002 but lost a bitter primary contest with political upstart John Sanchez, who now is Martinez’s ballot mate.

“You cannot divorce yourself from the administration you’re serving,” Bradley said in a recent interview. “Whatever is negative — small or large — is going to stick to you.”

History seems to back him up. Although many have tried, no sitting lieutenant governor since 1916 has succeeded in winning the New Mexico governorship.

Flashback — Manny’s way: Granted, Johnson himself wasn’t a big issue in the 2002 GOP primary. In fact, in the most notorious attack of that primary, Sanchez didn’t try to link Bradley to Johnson but to another powerful politician of that era — Democratic state Sen. Manny Aragon.

In a mailer denounced by many Republicans as well as Democrats, Sanchez claimed Bradley “does it Manny’s way.” Part of that charge was based on a procedural vote in the New Mexico Senate in which Bradley agreed with Aragon’s argument.

Of course, Bradley didn’t really do things “Manny’s way.” For instance, Bradley never was indicted or sent to prison on federal corruption charges. But despite the criticisms, the mailer didn’t hurt Sanchez in the primary. He smashed Bradley at the polls.

Differences with the administration: And, while Johnson’s performance wasn’t at the center of that campaign, one Johnson issue that most Republicans ran away from was his opposition to the war on drugs.

That was the major disagreement Bradley had with Johnson. Bradley, a Clovis resident, opposed Johnson’s call to legalize marijuana and liberalize other drug laws. “I broke with him on that and did it publicly,” Bradley said.

But that didn’t work, Bradley recalled. Many people just assumed he supported Johnson’s platform of drug-law reforms.

But Bradley, now a lobbyist for dairy farmers, says the problem facing any lieutenant governor goes deeper than any single issue. “I firmly believe it’s a mindset,” he said. “People want a change, particularly after eight years. I think that’s the driving force. People want something new and fresh. You’re part of (the administration). ... It’s a no-win.”

Darth Richardson: It’s too bad for Richardson that the Daily Kos didn’t ask New Mexicans their views of Manny Aragon. Had the national liberal blog done that, it might have identified a New Mexico political figure with lower approval numbers than Richardson’s.

If there’s any doubt why Martinez keeps showing pictures of Richardson in her attack ads against Denish, just look at the poll the blog commissioned for this state. It shows Martinez beating Denish 50 percent to 42 percent. Perhaps the more startling number, however, was the approval rating for Richardson.

“Denish seems to be being dragged down by the administration she’s served as lieutenant governor,” says poll analysis by Joan McCarter. “The most unpopular Democratic politician in the state is Gov. Bill Richardson, whose approval rating has cratered to 27 percent.”

Twenty-seven percent. We’re talking Dick Cheney levels. The poll of 1,307 likely voters by a Democratic firm called PPP was conducted Sept. 25-26 and has a 2.7 percent margin of error.

UPDATE: The earlier version of this post listed an incorrect poll figure figure for Diane Denish. It has been changed to reflect the correct number.