Tuesday, June 28, 2011

PPP Poll Says Dems Have a Slight Edge in Senate Race

If the 2012 U.S. Senate election was today either Martin Heinrich or Hector Balderas would defeat Heather Wilson, John Sanchez or Greg Sowards.

That's according to the latest PPP survey, which was released today.

Congressman Martin Heinrich leads former Congresswoman Heather Wilson 47-42 and Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez 45-39. State Auditor Hector Balderas leads Wilson 45-39 and Sanchez 39-35. Either of the Democrats would have a much wider lead over dark horse Republican candidate Greg Sowards: it's a 42-28 advantage for Balderas and a 46-34 one for Heinrich.

Wilson is the best known candidate with 83 percent recognition. On the Democratic side, Heinrich, at 68 percent recognition is better known than Balderas, who is known only by 39 percent.

While the poll shows Wilson and Sanchez getting some crossover support from conservative Democrats, "they're not where they need to be with independents." Among the indies, Wilson is behind Heinrich by 12 points and Balderas by 9 with them. Sanchez has a 2 point edge over Balderas with the independents, but trails Heinrich by 13. "The Republicans will have to step up their performance with independents to have a chance at picking up the seat," PPP says.

A news release from PPP says, "Despite her negative favorability numbers and deficit to Heinrich in this poll there is some good news for Wilson. When we looked at New Mexico in February she trailed Heinrich 50-39 in a hypothetical contest. So she has gained some ground over the last few months."

Also from the news release:

PPP surveyed 732 New Mexico voters from June 23th to 26th. The margin of error for thesurvey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Below is the poll with crosstabs, etc.
Ppp Nm Senate Poll 6-27-11