Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Another PPP Poll ... But Wait ...

There's another PPP (Public Policy Polling) survey for New Mexico released today. This one shows President Obama way out in front of various Republican contenders.

Once again, PPP shows former Gov. Gary Johnson as the most possible Republican in the batch. Yesterday's poll showed Johnson as doing better than other Republicans against Sen. Jeff Bingaman.

But before we go one, one reader pointed something out to me.

"Their sample is way off," my source said. "55% Democrats and 29% Republican. A 26% gap" According to the Secretary of State's website. voter registration in NM is 49% Democrat and 32% Republican. A 17% gap."

Indeed that's a pretty big grain of salt to take the poll with. Also, remember, those surveyed are registered voters, not necessarily likely voters.

PPP is a Democratic polling firm. In fairness, they don't always bring happy news for Democrats. Last year Nate Silver rated the company the 13th most accurate in the country. (This was done before the general election. Not sure how they ranked after that.)

So do consider the sample here. And remember, like I said yesterday, this is way too earlier for anyone but the most shameless political junkies to give a hoot about. (Remember that great contest between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani?)

According to the PPP news release:

New Mexico was one of Barack Obama's most surprising states in 2008- not that he won it, but that he won it by such a wide 15 point margin after George W. Bush had taken it in 2004. Obama remains popular in the state and if he had to stand for reelection today he'd take it by a similar amount to his previous victory.

Obama's approval rating with New Mexicans is 55% with 40% of voters disapproving of him. Most noteworthy are his very strong numbers with independents, 60% of whom are happy with the job he's doing to 32% who dissent.

According to the poll Obama would beat Johnson -- who is considered a longshot for the nomination -  51-36. Mitt Romney would lose 53-37. The other match-ups: Mike Huckabee would lose 55-36; 21, Newt Gingrich would get 35 percent to Obama's 56 and Sarah Palin would receive 33 percent of the vote compared with the president's 62 percent.

PPP Release NM Obama 0209513