I always figured if journalism didn't work out, I could always get a job as a roadside fortune teller.However, looking at how we called the chances of various bills for the recent session causes me to reconsider my options for a career as a psychic.
Before the session started, my colleagues Trip Jennings, Kate Nash and myself looked at the various issues Gov. Susana Martinez wanted to be considered during the special.
We rated the chances of each one -- "Good shot," "Long shot," "No shot." The ratings we arrived at was a consensus.
Yesterday I went back and looked at our original list and compared it to the actual results.
Of 10 issues, we called six of them correctly. That's 60 percent. By any measure, a grade of D.
O.K., D minus!
In general we we too optimistic about those issues we got wrong. Perhaps subconsciously we didn't want to be branded as doomsayers? Who knows?
One issue we didn't look at on the original list, which was late to be added to Martinez's agenda, was consolidating several state agencies. I'm sure we would have rated that "no shot" or "long shot" so that would have improved our average.
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